A large Central American low could spawn Helene » Yale Climate Connections (2024)

Posted inEye on the Storm

The Atlantic’s next named storm is likely a few days away, but floods and mudslides may emerge sooner.

A large Central American low could spawn Helene » Yale Climate Connections (1)A large Central American low could spawn Helene » Yale Climate Connections (2)byJeff Masters and Bob Henson

A large Central American low could spawn Helene » Yale Climate Connections (3)

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A sprawling low-pressure system known as aCentral American Gyre is developing over Central America and will bring heavy rains to much of Central America and southern Mexico over the next week. The Central American Gyre is likely to bring seven-day rainfall amounts in excess of a foot (305 mm) to Pacific-facing coasts of Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua, causing life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides (Fig. 1).

A large Central American low could spawn Helene » Yale Climate Connections (4)

The gyre — a type of monsoon low — is a weak but expansive area of surface low pressure that can persist for two weeks or more across Central America and adjacent parts of the Atlantic and Pacific, including the western Caribbean and southwest Gulf of Mexico. They are most common in May, June, September, October, and November.The gyres often spin off smaller circulations that can become full-fledged tropical cyclones. One such circulation formedin June in the Gulf of Mexico and became the season’s first named storm, Alberto.

A large Central American low could spawn Helene » Yale Climate Connections (5)

ACentral American Gyre typically takes many days to organize, then once fully developed, several more days to spin off a tropical cyclone. The formation location of a tropical cyclone spun off from a Central American Gyre is very difficult to predict more than two days in advance, but our top forecast models have been persistently predicting that it will spawn the Atlantic’s next named storm – Helene – sometime during the last week of September.

The models are not likely to converge on a likely location and timing for the formation of a potential Tropical Storm Helene for many days yet. The European model and its ensemble members favor a weaker and slower-developing storm over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico; the GFS model and its ensemble members favor a stronger storm farther to the east over the central Gulf. Both forecast camps have trended slower and farther westward with development since Thursday’s runs.

A large Central American low could spawn Helene » Yale Climate Connections (6)

In its 8 a.m. EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center gave two-day and seven-day odds of tropical cyclone development in the Western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico of 0% and 40%, respectively. As of Friday, no Hurricane Hunter missions for this system had been scheduled. With record to near-record ocean temperatures and oceanic heat content in the Gulf of Mexico, the ceiling for any storm that might get loose in the Gulf is a high one, and residents all along the Gulf Coast should anticipate the possibility that a hurricane may form in the Gulf during the last week of September. Update: As of 8 a.m. EDT Sunday, the two- and seven-day odds of this system developing had risen to 10% and 70%, respectively.

No big deal… we are just waiting to see if a tropical cyclone develops in the western Caribbean Sea and tracks into the Gulf of Mexico next week. Meanwhile, the ocean heat content is record high for the date in *both* bodies of water. 🧐🥵 pic.twitter.com/8UqvPDXUeL

— Brian McNoldy (@BMcNoldy) September 19, 2024

Two systems in the open Atlantic unlikely to develop

Two disturbances in the remote subtropical Atlantic pose no threat to land areas in the foreseeable future, if ever. Both systems were given paltry two- and seven-day development odds of 20% by the National Hurricane Center in its 8 a.m. EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

The remnants of former Tropical Storm Gordon continue to fester about halfway between the Lesser Antilles and the Azores. Strong westerly wind shear of around 25 knots is keeping the showers and thunderstorms (convection) displaced toward the east of ex-Gordon’s weak surface low (1008 mb). The shear is predicted to abate this weekend, and the surface waters are unusually warm (around 28 degrees Celsius or 82°F), but the atmosphere is quite dry (midlevel relative humidity around 45-50%). Still, ex-Gordon might manage to regain its tropical storm status briefly as it drifts northward.

A large Central American low could spawn Helene » Yale Climate Connections (7)

A few hundred miles to the west of Gordon, a disturbance named Invest 96L with a 1007-mb surface low is over similarly toasty subtropical waters and experiencing a bit less shear than ex-Gordon. Here too, though, the atmosphere is quite dry (midlevel humidity around 40-45%, and convection is limited, so any development would be gradual. Update: As of 8 a.m. Sunday, the two- and seven-day odds of Invest 96L developing remained at 20% and 20%, respectively. Ex-Gordon is no longer expected to redevelop. A new disturbance in the far eastern tropical Atlantic had near-zero odds of development through Tuesday but a 40% chance in the seven-day period, mainly later this week as it moves west-northwest into the central tropical Atlantic.

As of Friday morning, September 20, the only named tropical cyclone in the entire Northern Hemisphere wasPulasan, which was recurving northeastward over the South China Sea as a tropical depression after having made landfall near Shanghai on Thursday as a weak tropical storm. All four basins of the Northern Hemisphere –Atlantic, Northeast Pacific, Northwest Pacific, and North Indian – are now running below average for accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE, during this oddly tranquil peak season. This year’shemispheric ACEof 212.7, as calculated by Colorado State University, compares to an average through September 20 (1991-2020) of 364.4. The global totals to date are 31 for named storms (average to date 41.4) and 15 for hurricane-strength storms (average 22.1).

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Jeff Masters

Jeff Masters, Ph.D., worked as a hurricane scientist with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. After a near-fatal flight into category 5 Hurricane Hugo, he left the Hurricane Hunters to pursue a...More by Jeff Masters

Bob Henson

Bob Henson is a meteorologist and journalist based in Boulder, Colorado. He has written on weather and climate for the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Weather Underground, and many freelance...More by Bob Henson

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